Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crystal Palace win with a probability of 39.82%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 34.89% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crystal Palace win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (6.45%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crystal Palace would win this match.