Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Under-21s win with a probability of 50.35%. A win for Middlesbrough Under-21s had a probability of 29.86% and a draw had a probability of 19.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.14%) and 2-3 (5.47%). The likeliest Middlesbrough Under-21s win was 2-1 (6.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.