Premier League 2 - Div 1

Aug 16, 2024 at 6pm UK

Villa Park

Aston Villa U21s
3 - 1
Derby U21s

Broggio (10', 13'), Richards (85')
Wilson (53'), Patterson (76'), Smith (76')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Ilesanmi (87')
Robinson (51'), Stepien-Iwumene (51')

Coverage of the Premier League 2 - Div 1 clash between Aston Villa Under-21s and Derby County Under-21s.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa Under-21s

All competitions

Last Game: Spurs U21s 4-3 Aston Villa U21s (0-0 pen.)
Monday, May 6 at 12pm in Premier League 2 - Div 1

Goals
for

Derby County Under-21s

All competitions

Last Game: Derby U21s 3-0 Everton U21s
Monday, April 29 at 7pm in Premier League 2 - Div 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Under-21s win with a probability of 50.05%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 29.92% and a draw had a probability of 20%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.14%) and 3-2 (5.37%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa Under-21s would win this match.

Result
Aston Villa Under-21s	Draw	Derby County Under-21s
50.05% ( -0.36)	20.03% ( 0.07)	29.92% ( 0.3)

Both teams to score 74.07% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

76.5% (

-0.13)

23.5% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

57.07% (

-0.18)

42.93% (

0.18)

Aston Villa Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.72% (

-0.14)

10.28% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.32% (

-0.32)

33.67% (

0.33)

Derby County Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.56% (

0.08)

17.44% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.11% (

0.14)

47.89% (

-0.13)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa Under-21s 50.05%

Derby County Under-21s 29.92%

Draw 20.03%

Aston Villa Under-21s	Draw	Derby County Under-21s
2-1 @ 8.1% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 5.37% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 4.64% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 4.08% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.52% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.49% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 3.05% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 2% ( -0.03) 4-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.59% ( -0.03) 5-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.02) Other @ 4% Total : 50.05%	1-1 @ 7.12% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 7.08% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 3.12% ( -0) 0-0 @ 1.79% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.91% Total : 20.03%	1-2 @ 6.22% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.62% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.74% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 1.8% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.58% ( 0.02) 3-4 @ 1.36% ( 0) Other @ 3.75% Total : 29.92%