A victory on Sunday versus Los Angeles FC at Providence Park should be just about enough for the Portland Timbers to clinch a postseason berth for a sixth successive MLS campaign.
Portland are three points above the Western Conference playoff line, unbeaten in five consecutive league contests, while the Black and Gold are clinging to the Supporters Shield lead, with three more victories than the Philadelphia Union heading into this weekend.
Match preview
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Just like in 2021, the Timbers have come on strong near the tail end of this season, currently sixth in the Western Conference, just only a point behind Nashville SC for fourth and a home playoff game.
Before they can consider that possibility, though, they need to win this weekend, as Real Salt Lake trail them by three points but are tied with Portland for wins (11), with the Timbers possessing a goal differential of +3, while RSL's is -4.
Half-time adjustments have been crucial to their success in 2022, with Giovanni Savarese's men scoring 37 of their 51 goals in the second half, while they have found the back of the net in 18 successive fixtures, tallying 31 times during that span.
The MLS Cup runners-up from 2021 are on a roll at Providence Park, unbeaten in their previous nine matches played there, conceding a goal or fewer in each of those outings.
One of the most substantial attributes of this team in 2022 has been their balanced attack, as Portland are one of three MLS clubs with four players who have scored seven or more goals this season, while the other two are LAFC and the Union.
In their five previous regular season home fixtures against the Black and Gold, the Timbers have only suffered one defeat, falling 3-2 in 2019.
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It looks like a bit of home cooking was all LAFC needed to get their campaign back on track, beating the Houston Dynamo 3-1 in their previous match, putting an end to a two-game winless streak.
That was their ninth straight victory at Banc of California Stadium, equalling the longest such regular season winning streak by any MLS team in the last five seasons, with the Union also capturing nine in a row at home in 2020.
Their form on the road has not been as strong, without a win in five consecutive league fixtures, netting just a single goal each time.
Steve Cherundolo's team have already assured themselves of a first-round bye in the MLS Cup playoffs, but claiming their second Supporters' Shield Crown will take some doing.
Their final two games will be against the Timbers and Nashville SC, who themselves are looking to nail down postseason berths and a home playoff fixture.
Rarely will you see the Black and Gold shut out over 90 minutes, with LA scoring in 29 of its 32 MLS encounters this year, the most in the league, one more than the Portland Timbers.
Team News
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A Santiago Moreno strike in the 95th minute allowed the Timbers to draw the Columbus Crew 1-1, his seventh of the campaign, as he is tied with Sebastian Blanco for third on the team, while Bill Tuiloma recorded his second assist of 2022.
Juan Mosquera made his Portland debut in Columbus, replacing Larrys Mabiala in the second half, Dairon Asprilla has two goals in his career versus LAFC, while Yimmi Chara had their only tally when they drew them 1-1 earlier this season.
Hunter Sulte will be questionable because of a head injury, Blake Bodily is nursing a right hamstring strain and Felipe Mora will be sidelined due to a sore right knee.
A brace from Carlos Vela versus Houston moved him up to 11 on the season for the Black and Gold, which is still well back of Cristian Arango, who leads them with 16, while Ryan Hollingshead picked up his sixth of the campaign and is currently trailing Jose Cifuentes and Kwadwo Opoku for third by one.
Diego Palacios is fourth in the league in terms of tackles won (52), though he is well short of the MLS leader, Claudio Bravo of the Portland Timbers (75).
Franco Escobar is out with a head injury, while four newcomers were in the starting lineup versus the Dynamo, including Giorgio Chiellini, Hollingshead, Cifuentes and Palacios as Gareth Bale, Jesus Murillo, Sebastien Ibeagha and Latif Blessing began on the bench.
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Ivacic; Tuiloma, Zuparic, Mabiala, Van Rankin; Bravo, D. Chara, Williamson, Asprilla; Moreno, Blanco
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Hollingshead, Segura, Murillo, Palacios; Acosta, Sanchez, Blessing; Vela, Arango, Bale
We say: Portland Timbers 2-1 Los Angeles FC
Given the calibre of finishers on each side, we could see at least a few goals in this one, and just as Banc of California Stadium has been a fortress for LA, the same can be said about Providence Park for the Timbers.
Home-field advantage, along with the desperation of needing a result to potentially clinch a playoff spot, should give the Timbers a slight edge over their opponents.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
