Preview: Paraguay vs Australia - prediction, team news, lineups

In the final gameweek of Group D, Paraguay and Australia will battle for automatic progression to the knockouts of the 2026 World Cup on Friday at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium.

Third-placed Paraguay and second-placed Australia have three points apiece after their first two group games, but they are both guaranteed to finish in the top three after Turkey were eliminated, though neither can finish first.

Match preview

While they may have suffered a bruising 4-1 loss to the USA in gameweek one, Paraguay managed to beat Turkey 1-0 on June 20.

Their victory was made even more impressive considering Miguel Almiron was sent off just before the half-time interval, though they were already leading thanks to Matias Galarza's second-minute strike.

Manager Gustavo Alfaro must guide his side to three points on Friday as the first tiebreaker when teams are level is their head-to-head record and the second is goal difference, so a stalemate for Los Guaranies would result in Australia advancing because their goal difference of zero is two better than their opponents.

Any win for Paraguay could be tense given 10 of their past 12 triumphs were by a one-goal margin, but they have emerged as winners in five of their seven most recent fixtures.

The nation that manages to secure second place is currently slated to take on the runners-up of Group G, which could be any of Egypt, Iran, Belgium or New Zealand.

Paraguay have never won two group games at a single edition of the competition, though they have avoided defeat in the final group matches in each of their last six World Cups.

Australia's second outing at the World Cup was not as enjoyable as their resilient 2-0 success over Turkey on June 14, as they suffered a 2-0 loss against the US on June 19.

Socceroos cannot finish first because that defeat means the USA boast a better head-to-head record, though even a loss on Friday could still secure their place in the round of 32.

Eight third-placed teams will be entered into the knockouts, but relying on other nations to pick up fewer points would be risky.

Australia's clash with Paraguay will be their sixth ever meeting, and they will hope to maintain their unbeaten record against their opponents, who they defeated for the second time when they won 1-0 in October 2010.

Boss Tony Popovic has overseen three wins, one draw and two losses in his last six games in charge, with his players scoring nine goals and conceding five times in that stretch.

One or three points on Friday would book Australia's place in the knockout rounds for a second consecutive tournament, and it would also be the third World Cup in six that they would have managed to advance out of their group.

Whether Popovic can guide his team to a positive result against their 41st-ranked opponents remains to be seen, but the 27th-ranked Socceroos will be seen as favourites, as shown in our World Cup 2026 betting guide.

Paraguay World Cup form:

Paraguay form (all competitions):

Australia World Cup form:

Australia form (all competitions):

Team News

With Almiron suspended, Paraguay will be missing their squad's current top goalscorer (10), and his absence on the right could be decisive.

Gustavo Velazquez may have to be used in a slightly more advanced role on Friday, though it remains to be seen whether he will be able to provide much of an attacking impact.

There were also fears about the fitness of midfielder Diego Gomez, who was taken off against Turkey, but he has reportedly overcome his discomfort in time for his side's final group game.

Australian winger Mathew Leckie suffered a muscle injury against the US, and while he has not been ruled out of his nation's third match, it may be safer for Cristian Volpato to come into the lineup.

Despite struggling last time out, Aiden O'Neill and Paul Okon-Engstler can be expected to start in midfield for a third time at this World Cup.

It would also be surprising if centre-backs Alessandro Circati, Harry Souttar and Cameron Burgess were rotated considering the trio featured against Turkey and the US.

Paraguay possible starting lineup:

Gill; Caceres, G Gomez, Alderete, Alonso; Velazquez, Cubas, D Gomez, Galarza; Pitta, Enciso

Australia possible starting lineup:

Beach; Circati, Souttar, Burgess; Italiano, O'Neill, Okon-Engstler, Bos; Volpato, Toure, Irankunda