Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crusaders win with a probability of 43.11%. A win for Ballymena United had a probability of 30.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crusaders win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (6.88%). The likeliest Ballymena United win was 1-2 (7.52%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.