Nations League Gameweek 6
Nov 17, 2026 7.45pm
Cardiff City Stadium

Wales vs Portugal - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Wales

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
Portugal 1 - 0 Wales

Portugal

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
Portugal 1 - 0 Wales

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Portugal win with a probability of 55.98%. A draw has a probability of 22.25% and a win for Wales has a probability of 21.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (9.9%) and 1-2 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.03%) , while for a Wales win it is 1-0 (5.79%).

Result

Wales 21.77%
Draw 22.25%
Portugal 55.98%

Both Teams to Score: 

50.64% ▲ (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.2% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 23.8% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 2.5 53.37% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 2.5 46.63% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 3.5 30.88%
Under 3.5 69.12%
Over 4.5 19.01% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 4.5 80.99% ▲ (+0.01)

First Half Winner

Wales 21.62%
Draw 38.88%
Portugal 39.5%

Team To Score First

Wales 36.21%
No Goal 6.6%
Portugal 57.19%

Corners

Over 8 51.36%
Equal 8 11.01%
Under 8 37.63%
Over 9 40.66%
Equal 9 10.7%
Under 9 48.64%
Over 10.5 31.03%
Under 10.5 68.97%

Wales Goals

Over 1.5 24.86% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 1.5 75.14% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 8.72% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 91.28% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 2.51% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 97.49% ▲ (+0.01)

Portugal Goals

Over 0.5 80.91%
Under 0.5 19.09%
Over 1.5 51.94%
Under 1.5 48.06%
Over 2.5 25.82% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 74.18% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 3.5 10.58% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 89.42% ▲ (+0.02)

Score analysis

Wales 21.77%
Draw 22.25%
Portugal 55.98%
Wales
1-0 @ 5.79%
2-1 @ 5.38% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 2.89%
3-1 @ 2.15% ▼ (-0.02)
3-2 @ 1.75%
3-0 @ 1.35% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 21.77%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.03%
0-0 @ 6.6%
2-2 @ 4.61% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.05% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 22.25%
Portugal
0-1 @ 11.41%
0-2 @ 9.9% ▼ (-0.04)
1-2 @ 9.86% ▲ (+0.02)
0-3 @ 5.9% ▲ (+0.02)
1-3 @ 5.12% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 3.26%
Other @ 10.53%
Total : 55.98%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 1
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estádio José Alvalade
  • João Félix 22' goal
  • yellowcard Craig Bellamy 68'
  • yellowcard Ben Cabango  71'
European Championship
Jul 6, 2016 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stade de Lyon
  • Cristiano Ronaldo 50' goal
  • Nani 53' goal
  • Bruno Alves 71' yellowcard
  • Cristiano Ronaldo 72' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Joe Allen 8'
  • yellowcard James Chester 62'
  • yellowcard Gareth Bale 88'