Nations League Gameweek 2
Sep 28, 2026 7.45pm
Strawberry Arena

Sweden vs Poland - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Sweden

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Sweden 2 - 1 Romania

Poland

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Poland 0 - 0 Bosnia H'vina

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Sweden win with a probability of 51.3%. A win for Poland has a probability of 25.57% and a draw has a probability of 23.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.71%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Poland win is 1-2 (6.43%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.35%).

Result

Sweden 51.3% ▲ (+0.91)
Draw 23.14% ▲ (+0.13)
Poland 25.57% ▼ (-1.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.32% ▼ (-1.47)

Goals

Over 1.5 82.25% ▼ (-0.99)
Under 1.5 17.75% ▲ (+0.99)
Over 2.5 61.85% ▼ (-1.54)
Under 2.5 38.15% ▲ (+1.54)
Over 3.5 39.57% ▼ (-1.69)
Under 3.5 60.43% ▲ (+1.69)
Over 4.5 25.3% ▼ (-1.34)
Under 4.5 74.7% ▲ (+1.35)

First Half Winner

Sweden 37.07% ▲ (+0.01)
Draw 39.04% ▲ (+0.02)
Poland 23.89% ▼ (-0.04)

Team To Score First

Sweden 56.57% ▼ (-0.11)
No Goal 4.74% ▲ (+0.30)
Poland 38.69% ▼ (-0.20)

Corners

Over 8 67.28% ▲ (+0.47)
Equal 8 10.55% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 8 22.18% ▼ (-0.47)
Over 9 55.65% ▲ (+0.40)
Equal 9 11.62% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 9 32.72% ▼ (-0.47)
Over 10.5 43.98% ▲ (+0.30)
Under 10.5 56.02% ▼ (-0.30)

Sweden Goals

Over 1.5 53.9% ▼ (-0.21)
Under 1.5 46.1% ▲ (+0.21)
Over 2.5 29.51% ▼ (-0.36)
Under 2.5 70.49% ▲ (+0.36)
Over 3.5 13.03% ▼ (-0.31)
Under 3.5 86.97% ▲ (+0.30)

Poland Goals

Over 0.5 63.24% ▼ (-1.22)
Under 0.5 36.76% ▲ (+1.22)
Over 1.5 32.39% ▼ (-1.75)
Under 1.5 67.61% ▲ (+1.74)
Over 2.5 12.85% ▼ (-1.23)
Under 2.5 87.15% ▲ (+1.22)
Over 3.5 4.55% ▼ (-0.59)
Under 3.5 95.45% ▲ (+0.58)

Score analysis

Sweden 51.31%
Draw 23.12%
Poland 25.56%
Sweden
2-1 @ 9.42% ▲ (+0.15)
1-0 @ 7.71% ▲ (+0.50)
2-0 @ 6.87% ▲ (+0.42)
3-1 @ 5.79% ▲ (+0.03)
3-0 @ 4.82% ▲ (+0.23)
3-2 @ 4.09% ▼ (-0.15)
Other @ 12.61% ▼ (-0.25)
Total : 51.31%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.35% ▲ (+0.21)
2-2 @ 5.83% ▼ (-0.19)
0-0 @ 4.74% ▲ (+0.30)
3-3 @ 1.78% ▼ (-0.16)
Other @ 0.42% ▼ (-0.05)
Total : 23.12%
Poland
1-2 @ 6.43% ▼ (-0.15)
0-1 @ 5.29% ▲ (+0.17)
0-2 @ 3.19% ▼ (-0.06)
1-3 @ 2.64% ▼ (-0.19)
2-3 @ 2.27% ▼ (-0.21)
0-3 @ 1.61% ▼ (-0.08)
Other @ 4.13% ▼ (-0.54)
Total : 25.56%

Head to Head

World Cup Qualifying - Europe
Mar 31, 2026 7.45pm
3
2
HT : 2 1
FT Strawberry Arena
  • Anthony Elanga 19' goal
  • Gustaf Lagerbielke 44' goal
  • Besfort Zeneli 69' yellowcard
  • Lucas Bergvall 69' yellowcard
  • Gustav Lundgren 81' yellowcard
  • Viktor Gyökeres 88' goal
  • Mattias Svanberg 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Nicola Zalewski 33'
  • goal Karol Świderski 55'
  • yellowcard Oskar Pietuszewski 63'
  • yellowcard Kamil Grosicki 90'+1'
  • yellowcard Krzysztof Piatek 90'+2'
World Cup Qualifying - Europe
Mar 29, 2022 7.45pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Jacek Goralski 38' yellowcard
  • Robert Lewandowski 49' goal
  • Jakub Moder 52' yellowcard
  • Piotr Zielinski 72' goal
  • Robert Lewandowski 77' yellowcard
  • Krystian Bielik 81' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Alexander Isak 81'
  • yellowcard Dejan Kulusevski 90'+2'
European Championship
Jun 23, 2021 5.00pm
3
2
HT : 1 0
FT Aviva Stadium
  • Emil Forsberg 2' goal
  • Marcus Danielsson 10' yellowcard
  • Emil Forsberg 59' goal
  • Viktor Claesson 90'+4' goal
  • goal Robert Lewandowski 61'
  • yellowcard Grzegorz Krychowiak 74'
  • yellowcard Kamil Glik 83'
  • goal Robert Lewandowski 84'