Nations League Gameweek 4
Oct 5, 2026 7.45pm
Windsor Park

Northern Ireland vs Georgia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Northern Ireland

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 5.00pm
Georgia 0 - 1 N. Ireland

Georgia

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 5.00pm
Georgia 0 - 1 N. Ireland

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 39.58%. A win for Georgia has a probability of 33.76% and a draw has a probability of 26.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Georgia win is 0-1 (11.01%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.63%).

Result

Northern Ireland 39.58% ▼ (-0.02)
Draw 26.66% ▼ (-0.06)
Georgia 33.76%

Both Teams to Score: 

45.56% ▲ (+0.02)

Goals

Over 1.5 67.67% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 1.5 32.33% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 2.5 41.36% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 58.64% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 20.72% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 79.28% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 4.5 10.73%
Under 4.5 89.27%

First Half Winner

Northern Ireland 26.37% ▼ (-0.19)
Draw 46.89% ▲ (+0.17)
Georgia 26.73% ▲ (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Northern Ireland 45.25% ▲ (+0.15)
No Goal 9.42% ▼ (-0.01)
Georgia 45.33% ▼ (-0.14)

Corners

Over 8 53.68% ▲ (+0.50)
Equal 8 12.02%
Under 8 34.3% ▼ (-0.50)
Over 9 41.83% ▲ (+0.47)
Equal 9 11.85% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 9 46.32% ▼ (-0.50)
Over 10.5 31.11% ▲ (+0.40)
Under 10.5 68.89% ▼ (-0.40)

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 1.5 33.87% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 66.13% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 12.81% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 87.19% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 4.22% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 95.78% ▲ (+0.02)

Georgia Goals

Over 0.5 63.93% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 0.5 36.07% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 1.5 29%
Under 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 9.96% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 90.04% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 3.5 2.8% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 97.2% ▼ (-0.01)

Score analysis

Northern Ireland 39.58%
Draw 26.67%
Georgia 33.76%
Northern Ireland
1-0 @ 11.91%
2-1 @ 7.98% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 7.4% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 3.31% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 3.14%
3-2 @ 1.63% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 4.21% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 39.58%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.63% ▼ (-0.04)
0-0 @ 9.42% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.1% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 26.67%
Georgia
0-1 @ 11.01% ▼ (-0.01)
1-2 @ 7.03% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 6.28% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 2.59%
0-3 @ 2.48% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 1.58%
Other @ 2.79% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 33.76%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 1
Sep 25, 2026 5.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Stadioni Ragbi Arena
  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 90'+5' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Dan Ballard 64'
  • yellowcard Ciaron Brown 67'
  • yellowcard Justin Devenny 90'+5'
  • goal Shea Charles 90'+9'