Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Georgia win with a probability of 47.24%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 28.07% and a draw had a probability of 24.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Georgia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.18%) and 0-2 (7.79%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-0 (7.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.