Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moldova win with a probability of 43.63%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 33.76% and a draw had a probability of 22.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moldova win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.38%) and 2-0 (5.84%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-2 (7.55%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.