Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Latvia win with a probability of 45.84%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for North Macedonia had a probability of 27.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Latvia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.85%) and 2-1 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a North Macedonia win it was 0-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that North Macedonia would win this match.