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UEFA Nations League

Gibraltar national football team
Nations League | Relegation Playoff | 1st Leg
Mar 21, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Loule
Lithuania national football team

Gibraltar
0 - 1
Lithuania


Ruiz (82')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Kucys (60', 60')
Girdvainis (8'), Lasickas (16'), Paulauskas (32'), Gineitis (44')
Girdvainis (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Gibraltar and Lithuania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gibraltar

All competitions
Last Game: Gibraltar 0-6 Netherlands
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Lithuania

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Last Game: Cyprus 1-0 Lithuania
Sunday, November 19 at 4pm in International Friendlies
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lithuania win with a probability of 76.49%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 5.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win was 0-2 with a probability of 18.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (18.21%) and 0-3 (12.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.01%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 1-0 (3.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 18.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lithuania would win this match.

Result
GibraltarDrawLithuania
5.99% (-0.5421 -0.54)17.52% (0.43 0.43)76.49% (0.10599999999999 0.11)
Both teams to score 27.74% (-3.398 -3.4)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.2% (-3.271 -3.27)56.8% (3.265 3.27)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.26% (-2.694 -2.69)77.73% (2.689 2.69)
Gibraltar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
31.98% (-3.533 -3.53)68.02% (3.529 3.53)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
5.77% (-1.456 -1.46)94.23% (1.451 1.45)
Lithuania Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.75% (-0.943 -0.94)13.25% (0.937 0.94)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.97% (-1.934 -1.93)40.03% (1.927 1.93)
Score Analysis
    Gibraltar 5.99%
    Lithuania 76.47%
    Draw 17.52%
GibraltarDrawLithuania
1-0 @ 3.47% (-0.01 -0.01)
2-1 @ 1.35% (-0.247 -0.25)
Other @ 1.16%
Total : 5.99%
0-0 @ 9.01% (1.072 1.07)
1-1 @ 7.02% (-0.276 -0.28)
2-2 @ 1.37% (-0.309 -0.31)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 17.52%
0-2 @ 18.4% (0.99 0.99)
0-1 @ 18.21% (1.58 1.58)
0-3 @ 12.4% (0.24 0.24)
1-2 @ 7.09% (-0.547 -0.55)
0-4 @ 6.27% (-0.101 -0.1)
1-3 @ 4.78% (-0.555 -0.56)
0-5 @ 2.53% (-0.134 -0.13)
1-4 @ 2.42% (-0.378 -0.38)
1-5 @ 0.98% (-0.194 -0.19)
2-3 @ 0.92% (-0.249 -0.25)
Other @ 2.47%
Total : 76.47%

How you voted: Gibraltar vs Lithuania

Gibraltar
20.0%
Draw
12.3%
Lithuania
67.7%
65