Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 16, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Victoria Stadium

Gibraltar
0 - 4
Rep. Ireland

Annesley (53'), Sergeant (84')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Ferguson (8'), Johnston (28'), Doherty (60'), Robinson (80')
Doherty (72'), McGrath (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Gibraltar and Republic of Ireland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gibraltar

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Wales 4-0 Gibraltar
Wednesday, October 11 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	6	12	18
2	Greece	6	7	12
3	Netherlands	5	2	9
4	Republic of Ireland	6	-4	3
5	Gibraltar	5	-17	0

Republic of Ireland

All competitions

Last Game: Rep. Ireland 0-2 Greece
Friday, October 13 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	6	12	18
2	Greece	6	7	12
3	Netherlands	5	2	9
4	Republic of Ireland	6	-4	3
5	Gibraltar	5	-17	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Republic of Ireland win with a probability of 81.43%. A draw had a probability of 13.5% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 5.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Republic of Ireland win was 0-2 with a probability of 16.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (13.4%) and 0-1 (13.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.1%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 1-0 (2.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Republic of Ireland would win this match.

Result
Gibraltar	Draw	Republic of Ireland
5.1% ( 0.14)	13.46% ( 0.08)	81.43% ( -0.22)

Both teams to score 33.59% (

0.63)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.75% (

0.29)

44.24% (

-0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.38% (

0.28)

66.62% (

-0.28)

Gibraltar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

36.74% (

0.69)

63.26% (

-0.69)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

7.77% (

0.31)

92.23% (

-0.31)

Republic of Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.43% (

0.01)

8.57% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.38% (

0.03)

29.62% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Gibraltar 5.11%

Republic of Ireland 81.42%

Draw 13.46%

Gibraltar	Draw	Republic of Ireland
1-0 @ 2.48% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.23% Total : 5.11%	1-1 @ 6.1% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.42% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.23% Total : 13.46%	0-2 @ 16.36% ( -0.18) 0-3 @ 13.4% ( -0.14) 0-1 @ 13.31% ( -0.16) 0-4 @ 8.23% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 6.14% ( 0.08) 0-5 @ 4.05% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 3.77% ( 0.05) 1-5 @ 1.85% ( 0.03) 0-6 @ 1.66% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.76% Total : 81.42%