Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lithuania win with a probability of 55.9%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Cyprus had a probability of 19.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.75%) and 1-2 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a Cyprus win it was 1-0 (6.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.