Nations League Gameweek 5
Nov 13, 2026 7.45pm
Stadion Hristo Botev

Bulgaria vs Iceland - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Bulgaria

All competitions

Iceland

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Iceland win with a probability of 52.38%. A win for Bulgaria has a probability of 24.22% and a draw has a probability of 23.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (9.42%) and 0-2 (9.16%). The likeliest Bulgaria win is 1-0 (6.44%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.65%).

Result

Bulgaria 24.22% ▼ (-0.04)
Draw 23.37%
Iceland 52.38%

Both Teams to Score: 

50.1% ▼ (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.87% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 1.5 24.13% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 2.5 52.58% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 2.5 47.43% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 3.5 30.81% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 3.5 69.19% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 4.5 18.86% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 4.5 81.14% ▲ (+0.05)

First Half Winner

Bulgaria 20.34%
Draw 41.6%
Iceland 38.06%

Team To Score First

Bulgaria 36.47%
No Goal 6.91% ▲ (+0.01)
Iceland 56.62% ▼ (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 32.28%
Equal 8 10.91%
Under 8 56.81%
Over 9 23.24%
Equal 9 9.04%
Under 9 67.72%
Over 10.5 16.28%
Under 10.5 83.72%

Bulgaria Goals

Over 1.5 26.62% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 1.5 73.38% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 2.5 9.75% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 2.5 90.25% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 3.13% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 96.87% ▲ (+0.02)

Iceland Goals

Over 0.5 78.66% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 0.5 21.34% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 1.5 49.34% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 1.5 50.66% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 2.5 24.24%
Under 2.5 75.76%
Over 3.5 9.84%
Under 3.5 90.16%

Score analysis

Bulgaria 24.21%
Draw 23.37%
Iceland 52.39%
Bulgaria
1-0 @ 6.44% ▲ (+0.02)
2-1 @ 5.72% ▼ (-0.02)
2-0 @ 3.48%
3-1 @ 2.2%
3-2 @ 1.89% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 1.46% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.02% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 24.21%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.65%
0-0 @ 6.91% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 4.63% ▼ (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.07%
Other @ 0.11% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 23.37%
Iceland
0-1 @ 10.75% ▲ (+0.01)
1-2 @ 9.42%
0-2 @ 9.16% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 5.16% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 5.13%
2-3 @ 3.04% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 9.73% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 52.39%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 3
Oct 3, 2026 5.00pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Laugardalsvöllur
  • Hörður Magnússon 4' yellowcard
  • Mikael Egill Ellertsson 32' yellowcard
  • Orri Óskarsson 37' goal
  • Orri Óskarsson 60' goal
  • Mikael Egill Ellertsson 90' goal
  • yellowcard Lukas Petkov 10'
  • yellowcard Dimitar Velkovski 27'
  • yellowcard Atanas Iliev 59'
  • yellowcard Marin Petkov 80'