National League North Gameweek 8
Sep 8, 2026 7.45pm
Lookers Vauxhall Stadium

Chester FC vs Merthyr Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Chester FC

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Sep 5, 2026 3.00pm
Hebburn Town 0 - 0 Chester
Goals scored
7
Top scorer
M. Bogle-Campbell

Merthyr Town

All competitions
National League North
Last game
Sep 5, 2026 3.00pm
Merthyr Town 0 - 0 Macclesfield
Goals scored
8
Top scorer
Jacob Maddox

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Chester FC win with a probability of 57.75%. A draw has a probability of 21.58% and a win for Merthyr Town has a probability of 20.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chester FC win is 2-1 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.83%) , while for a Merthyr Town win it is 1-2 (5.48%).

Result

Chester FC 57.75%
Draw 21.58% (+0.04)
Merthyr Town 20.72%

Both Teams to Score: 

57.74% (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.34% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 19.66% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 59.07% (-0.05)
Under 2.5 40.93% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 36.24% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 63.76% (+0.05)
Over 4.5 22.2% (-0.04)
Under 4.5 77.8% (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Chester FC 44.5%
Draw 37.69%
Merthyr Town 17.81%

Team To Score First

Chester FC 63.78% (-0.01)
No Goal 4.98% (+0.03)
Merthyr Town 31.24% (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 63.92%
Equal 8 10.86%
Under 8 25.21%
Over 9 52.31%
Equal 9 11.62%
Under 9 36.08%
Over 10.5 40.94%
Under 10.5 59.06%

Chester FC Goals

Over 1.5 56.83% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 43.17% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 29.93% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 70.07% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 12.72%
Under 3.5 87.28%

Merthyr Town Goals

Over 0.5 58.34% (-0.01)
Under 0.5 41.66% (+0.01)
Over 1.5 26.24% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 73.76% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 8.71%
Under 2.5 91.29%
Over 3.5 2.51% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 97.49% (+0.01)

Score analysis

Chester FC 57.74%
Draw 21.58%
Merthyr Town 20.71%
Chester FC
2-1 @ 10.73% (-0.01)
1-0 @ 9.56% (+0.03)
2-0 @ 8.8% (+0.02)
3-1 @ 6.39% (-0.02)
3-0 @ 5.68%
3-2 @ 3.91% (-0.03)
Other @ 12.67% (-0.01)
Total : 57.74%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.83% (+0.02)
2-2 @ 5.49% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 4.98% (+0.03)
3-3 @ 1.23% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.05% (+0.02)
Total : 21.58%
Merthyr Town
1-2 @ 5.48%
0-1 @ 5.15% (+0.03)
0-2 @ 2.65%
1-3 @ 2.15%
2-3 @ 1.88%
Other @ 2.46% (-0.03)
Total : 20.71%

Head to Head

National League North Gameweek 38
Mar 10, 2026 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 1 1
FT Penydarren Park
  • Matthew Harris 11' goal
  • goal Finley Shrimpton 5'
  • goal Dylan Mottley-Henry 90'+7'
National League North
Oct 4, 2025 3.00pm
2
2
HT : 0 0
FT