Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 36.96%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 36.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (6.27%). The likeliest Toronto win was 1-0 (8.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.