Major League Soccer
Toronto
Apr 11, 2026 6.00pm
BMO Field
Cincinnati

Toronto vs FC Cincinnati - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
Apr 4, 2026 6.00pm
Toronto 3 - 2 Colorado
Goals scored
9
Top scorer
Dániel Sallói

FC Cincinnati

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
Apr 5, 2026 12.30am
NY Red Bulls 4 - 2 Cincinnati
Goals scored
9
Top scorer
Kévin Denkey

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toronto win with a probability of 42.83%. A win for FC Cincinnati has a probability of 32.34% and a draw has a probability of 24.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.15%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win is 1-2 (7.7%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.48%).

Result

Toronto 42.83% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 24.83%
FC Cincinnati 32.34% ▼ (-0.03)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.39%

Goals

Over 1.5 79.71% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 20.29% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 57.18% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 42.82% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 34.53% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 65.47% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 4.5 20.15% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 79.85% ▼ (-0.03)

First Half Winner

Toronto 31.96%
Draw 40.28%
FC Cincinnati 27.77%

Team To Score First

Toronto 50.16% ▲ (+0.01)
No Goal 5.37% ▼ (-0.01)
FC Cincinnati 44.47%

Corners

Over 8 61.55%
Equal 8 10.88%
Under 8 27.57%
Over 9 50.14%
Equal 9 11.41%
Under 9 38.45%
Over 10.5 39.14%
Under 10.5 60.86%

Toronto Goals

Over 1.5 45.47% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 1.5 54.53% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 2.5 20.7% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 79.3% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 3.5 7.68% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 92.32% ▼ (-0.02)

FC Cincinnati Goals

Over 0.5 69.06%
Under 0.5 30.94%
Over 1.5 36.94%
Under 1.5 63.06%
Over 2.5 14.92%
Under 2.5 85.08%
Over 3.5 5%
Under 3.5 95%

Score analysis

Toronto 42.83%
Draw 24.83%
FC Cincinnati 32.33%
Toronto
2-1 @ 9.22% ▲ (+0.01)
1-0 @ 8.15%
2-0 @ 6.43%
3-1 @ 4.66% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 3.5% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 3.39% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 7.48% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 42.83%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.48%
2-2 @ 6.31%
0-0 @ 5.37% ▼ (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.47%
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 24.83%
FC Cincinnati
1-2 @ 7.7%
0-1 @ 6.76% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 4.62% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 3.41%
2-3 @ 2.81%
0-3 @ 2.23%
Other @ 4.8%
Total : 32.33%

Head to Head

Major League Soccer
Cincinnati
Mar 8, 2026 11.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT TQL Stadium
Toronto
  • Samuel Gidi 63' yellowcard
  • Ayoub Jabbari 63' yellowcard
  • Evander 74' yellowcard
  • Teenage Hadebe 86' yellowcard
  • Kyle Smith 87' yellowcard
  • Teenage Hadebe 87' yellowcard
  • Kyle Smith 88' yellowcard
  • Kenji Mboma Dem 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Derrick Etienne Jr. 65'
  • yellowcard Deandre Kerr  73'
  • yellowcard Lazar Stefanović 73'
  • goal Dániel Sallói 85'
  • yellowcard Alonso Coello 90'+1'
MLS Playoffs
Toronto
May 15, 2025 12.30am
0
1
HT : 0 2
FT BMO Field
Cincinnati
  • Federico Bernardeschi 19' yellowcard
  • Federico Bernardeschi 19' yellowcard
  • goal Kevin Denkey 18'
  • goal Kevin Denkey 18'
  • yellowcard Gilberto Flores 24'
  • yellowcard Gilberto Flores 24'
  • yellowcard Evander 32'
  • yellowcard Evander 32'
  • yellowcard Lukas Engel 90'
  • yellowcard Lukas Engel 90'
Major League Soccer
Cincinnati
Mar 9, 2025 12.30am
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Toronto
  • Evander 66' yellowcard
  • Evander 66' yellowcard
  • Kevin Denkey 73' goal
  • Kevin Denkey 73' goal
  • Yuya Kubo 87' goal
  • Yuya Kubo 87' goal
  • Alvas Powell 89' yellowcard
  • Alvas Powell 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kosi Thompson 50'
  • yellowcard Kosi Thompson 50'
Major League Soccer
Toronto
May 26, 2024 12.30am
3
4
HT : 2 0
FT BMO Field
Cincinnati
  • Deybi Flores 25' goal
  • Deybi Flores 25' goal
  • Deybi Flores 33' yellowcard
  • Deybi Flores 33' yellowcard
  • Matty Longstaff 60' yellowcard
  • Matty Longstaff 60' yellowcard
  • Ian Murphy 63' goal
  • Ian Murphy 63' goal
  • Kevin Long 78' yellowcard
  • Kevin Long 78' yellowcard
  • Miles Robinson 83' yellowcard
  • Lorenzo Insigne 85' goal
  • Lorenzo Insigne 85' goal
  • Lorenzo Insigne 90'+8' yellowcard
  • goal Luca Orellano 53'
  • goal Luca Orellano 53'
  • goal Kevin Kelsy 55'
  • goal Kevin Kelsy 55'
  • yellowcard Luca Orellano 60'
  • yellowcard Luca Orellano 60'
  • goal Luca Orellano 79'
  • goal Luca Orellano 79'
  • yellowcard Miles Robinson 83'
  • goal Sergio Santos 90'+3'
  • goal Sergio Santos 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Lorenzo Insigne 90'+8'
  • yellowcard Kevin Kelsy 90'+10'
  • yellowcard Kevin Kelsy 90'+10'
Major League Soccer
Cincinnati
Feb 25, 2024 7.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Nippert Stadium
Toronto
  • Yuya Kubo 63' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jonathan Osorio 2'
  • yellowcard Raoul Petretta 34'
  • yellowcard Shane O'Neill 54'
  • yellowcard Sean Johnson 82'
Major League Soccer
Toronto
Oct 1, 2023 12.30am
2
3
HT : 4 4
FT BMO Field
Cincinnati
  • Jonathan Osorio 39' goal
  • Jonathan Osorio 39' goal
  • Jonathan Osorio 44' goal
  • Jonathan Osorio 44' goal
  • Themi Antonoglou 74' yellowcard
  • Themi Antonoglou 74' yellowcard
  • Prince Osei Owusu 84' yellowcard
  • Prince Osei Owusu 86' yellowcard
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 28'
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 28'
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 35'
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 35'
  • goal Aaron Boupendza 72'
  • goal Aaron Boupendza 72'

Form Data

Toronto 3 - 2 Colorado
Toronto 2 - 1 Columbus Crew
Toronto 1 - 1 NY Red Bulls
Cincinnati 0 - 1 Toronto
Vancouver 3 - 0 Toronto
Dallas 3 - 2 Toronto
NY Red Bulls 4 - 2 Cincinnati
Cincinnati 4 - 3 Montreal
Tigres 5 - 1 Cincinnati
New England 6 - 1 Cincinnati
Cincinnati 3 - 0 Tigres
Cincinnati 0 - 1 Toronto