Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 46.62%. A win for Colorado Rapids had a probability of 27.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Colorado Rapids win was 0-1 (7.33%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.