Major League Soccer
Mar 8, 2026 11.00pm
TQL Stadium

FC Cincinnati vs Toronto - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

FC Cincinnati

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 9.30pm
Minnesota Utd 1 - 0 Cincinnati
Goals scored
2
Top scorer
Kévin Denkey

Toronto

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last game
Mar 1, 2026 2.30am
Vancouver 3 - 0 Toronto
Goals scored
2
Top scorer
Djordje Mihailovic

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 63.33%. A draw has a probability of 22.3% and a win for Toronto has a probability of 14.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.99%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.52%) , while for a Toronto win it is 0-1 (5.08%).

Result

FC Cincinnati 63.33% (+0.75)
Draw 22.3% (-0.24)
Toronto 14.34% (-0.55)

Both Teams to Score: 

44.54% (-0.94)

Goals

Over 1.5 72.9% (-0.15)
Under 1.5 27.1% (+0.16)
Over 2.5 49.57% (-0.23)
Under 2.5 50.39% (+0.19)
Over 3.5 29.04% (-0.33)
Under 3.5 70.96% (+0.32)
Over 4.5 18.48% (-0.09)
Under 4.5 81.52% (+0.09)

First Half Winner

FC Cincinnati 47.31% (+0.79)
Draw 36.5% (-0.29)
Toronto 16.19% (-0.50)

Team To Score First

FC Cincinnati 65.72% (+1.10)
No Goal 8.06% (+0.06)
Toronto 26.22% (-1.15)

Corners

Over 8 53.12% (-0.15)
Equal 8 11.99% (+0.08)
Under 8 34.89% (+0.08)
Over 9 41.34% (-0.19)
Equal 9 11.78% (+0.06)
Under 9 46.88% (+0.15)
Over 10.5 30.73% (-0.22)
Under 10.5 69.27% (+0.22)

FC Cincinnati Goals

Over 1.5 55.28% (+0.33)
Under 1.5 44.72% (-0.33)
Over 2.5 29.21% (+0.32)
Under 2.5 70.79% (-0.31)
Over 3.5 12.82% (+0.26)
Under 3.5 87.18% (-0.26)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5 46.01% (-0.93)
Under 0.5 53.99% (+0.93)
Over 1.5 16.57% (-0.77)
Under 1.5 83.43% (+0.78)
Over 2.5 4.85% (-0.36)
Under 2.5 95.15% (+0.36)
Over 3.5 1.27% (-0.13)
Under 3.5 98.73% (+0.14)

Score analysis

FC Cincinnati 63.32%
Draw 22.3%
Toronto 14.34%
FC Cincinnati
1-0 @ 13.92% (+0.14)
2-0 @ 11.99% (+0.23)
2-1 @ 9.16% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 7.32% (+0.23)
3-1 @ 5.68% (-0.03)
3-2 @ 2.59% (-0.11)
Other @ 12.66% (+0.27)
Total : 63.32%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.52% (-0.09)
0-0 @ 8.06% (+0.06)
2-2 @ 3.76% (-0.14)
Other @ 0.16% (-0.02)
Total : 22.3%
Toronto
0-1 @ 5.08% (-0.06)
1-2 @ 3.54% (-0.13)
0-2 @ 1.83% (-0.07)
2-3 @ 1.16% (-0.09)
1-3 @ 1.11% (-0.08)
Other @ 1.11% (-0.12)
Total : 14.34%

Head to Head

MLS Playoffs
May 15, 2025 12.30am
0
1
HT : 0 2
FT BMO Field
  • Federico Bernardeschi 19' yellowcard
  • Federico Bernardeschi 19' yellowcard
  • goal Kevin Denkey 18'
  • goal Kevin Denkey 18'
  • yellowcard Gilberto Flores 24'
  • yellowcard Gilberto Flores 24'
  • yellowcard Evander 32'
  • yellowcard Evander 32'
  • yellowcard Lukas Engel 90'
  • yellowcard Lukas Engel 90'
Major League Soccer
Mar 9, 2025 12.30am
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Evander 66' yellowcard
  • Evander 66' yellowcard
  • Kevin Denkey 73' goal
  • Kevin Denkey 73' goal
  • Yuya Kubo 87' goal
  • Yuya Kubo 87' goal
  • Alvas Powell 89' yellowcard
  • Alvas Powell 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kosi Thompson 50'
  • yellowcard Kosi Thompson 50'
Major League Soccer
May 26, 2024 12.30am
3
4
HT : 2 0
FT BMO Field
  • Deybi Flores 25' goal
  • Deybi Flores 25' goal
  • Deybi Flores 33' yellowcard
  • Deybi Flores 33' yellowcard
  • Matty Longstaff 60' yellowcard
  • Matty Longstaff 60' yellowcard
  • Ian Murphy 63' goal
  • Ian Murphy 63' goal
  • Kevin Long 78' yellowcard
  • Kevin Long 78' yellowcard
  • Miles Robinson 83' yellowcard
  • Lorenzo Insigne 85' goal
  • Lorenzo Insigne 85' goal
  • Lorenzo Insigne 90'+8' yellowcard
  • goal Luca Orellano 53'
  • goal Luca Orellano 53'
  • goal Kevin Kelsy 55'
  • goal Kevin Kelsy 55'
  • yellowcard Luca Orellano 60'
  • yellowcard Luca Orellano 60'
  • goal Luca Orellano 79'
  • goal Luca Orellano 79'
  • yellowcard Miles Robinson 83'
  • goal Sergio Santos 90'+3'
  • goal Sergio Santos 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Lorenzo Insigne 90'+8'
  • yellowcard Kevin Kelsy 90'+10'
  • yellowcard Kevin Kelsy 90'+10'
Major League Soccer
Feb 25, 2024 7.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Nippert Stadium
  • Yuya Kubo 63' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jonathan Osorio 2'
  • yellowcard Raoul Petretta 34'
  • yellowcard Shane O'Neill 54'
  • yellowcard Sean Johnson 82'
Major League Soccer
Oct 1, 2023 12.30am
2
3
HT : 4 4
FT BMO Field
  • Jonathan Osorio 39' goal
  • Jonathan Osorio 39' goal
  • Jonathan Osorio 44' goal
  • Jonathan Osorio 44' goal
  • Themi Antonoglou 74' yellowcard
  • Themi Antonoglou 74' yellowcard
  • Prince Osei Owusu 84' yellowcard
  • Prince Osei Owusu 86' yellowcard
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 28'
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 28'
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 35'
  • goal Brandon Vazquez 35'
  • goal Aaron Boupendza 72'
  • goal Aaron Boupendza 72'
Major League Soccer
Jun 22, 2023 12.30am
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Nippert Stadium
  • Santiago Arias 35' goal
  • Santiago Arias 35' goal
  • Luciano Acosta 54' goal
  • Luciano Acosta 54' goal
  • Dominique Badji 63' goal
  • Dominique Badji 63' goal