Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 44.04%. A draw had a probability of 28.93% and a win for Atlanta United had a probability of 27.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.35%) and 2-1 (8.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%) , while for a Atlanta United win it was 0-1 (8.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.