Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 43.91%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 32.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.48%) and 2-0 (6.32%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-2 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.