| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 37 | 54 |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 27 | 10 | 49 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 8 | 44 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 27 | 10 | 49 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 8 | 44 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 26 | 5 | 36 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 50.02%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 24.99% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| CF Montreal | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
| 50.02% ( | 24.99% ( | 24.99% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.87% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.34% ( | 50.65% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.44% ( | 72.56% ( |
| CF Montreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.73% ( | 20.26% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.39% ( | 52.61% ( |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.05% ( | 34.95% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.31% ( | 71.69% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| CF Montreal | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
| 1-0 @ 11.3% 2-1 @ 9.49% ( 2-0 @ 9.02% ( 3-1 @ 5.05% ( 3-0 @ 4.8% ( 3-2 @ 2.65% ( 4-1 @ 2.02% ( 4-0 @ 1.92% ( 4-2 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 2.71% Total : 50.01% | 1-1 @ 11.88% ( 0-0 @ 7.08% ( 2-2 @ 4.99% ( 3-3 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.98% | 0-1 @ 7.44% ( 1-2 @ 6.25% ( 0-2 @ 3.91% ( 1-3 @ 2.19% ( 2-3 @ 1.75% ( 0-3 @ 1.37% ( Other @ 2.08% Total : 24.99% |