Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for DC United had a probability of 33.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.72%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest DC United win was 1-0 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.