Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 49.26%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 28.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.21%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 1-2 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.