Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (8.33%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.