Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star win with a probability of 38.47%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 33.1% and a draw had a probability of 28.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 0-1 (9.6%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.