Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Troyes win with a probability of 38.88%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 33.66% and a draw had a probability of 27.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Troyes win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.73%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 (8.96%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.