Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 41.77%. A win for Pau had a probability of 32.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.6%) and 0-2 (6.22%). The likeliest Pau win was 2-1 (7.72%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.