Ligue 2 Gameweek 26
Mar 6, 2026 7.00pm
Stade Du Hameau Idron 1

Pau vs Bastia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Pau

All competitions
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 7.00pm
Pau 0 - 3 St Etienne
Goals scored
37
Top scorer
Giovani Versini

Bastia

All competitions
Last game
Feb 27, 2026 7.00pm
Bastia 0 - 2 Annecy
Goals scored
12
Top scorer
Jeremy Sebas

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Pau win with a probability of 38.72%. A win for Bastia has a probability of 32.44% and a draw has a probability of 28.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Pau win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Bastia win is 0-1 (10.73%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.16%).

Result

Pau 38.72% (-0.78)
Draw 28.87% (-0.25)
Bastia 32.44% (+1.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

47.28% (+0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 67.43% (+0.24)
Under 1.5 32.57% (-0.23)
Over 2.5 41.58% (+0.20)
Under 2.5 58.42% (-0.18)
Over 3.5 20.7% (+0.08)
Under 3.5 79.3% (-0.08)
Over 4.5 10.34% (+0.23)
Under 4.5 89.66% (-0.22)

First Half Winner

Pau 30.91% (+0.25)
Draw 43.8% (-0.68)
Bastia 25.29% (+0.44)

Team To Score First

Pau 48.72% (-1.19)
No Goal 10.23% (-0.33)
Bastia 41.05% (+1.51)

Corners

Over 8 53.85% (+0.31)
Equal 8 12.17% (+0.23)
Under 8 33.98% (-0.53)
Over 9 41.82% (+0.05)
Equal 9 12.02% (+0.25)
Under 9 46.15% (-0.31)
Over 10.5 30.96% (-0.17)
Under 10.5 69.04% (+0.17)

Pau Goals

Over 1.5 34.03% (-0.50)
Under 1.5 65.97% (+0.49)
Over 2.5 12.59% (-0.17)
Under 2.5 87.41% (+0.16)
Over 3.5 3.7% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 96.3% (+0.04)

Bastia Goals

Over 0.5 64.53% (+1.21)
Under 0.5 35.47% (-1.21)
Over 1.5 29.07% (+0.52)
Under 1.5 70.93% (-0.51)
Over 2.5 9.38% (+0.40)
Under 2.5 90.62% (-0.40)
Over 3.5 2.62% (+0.27)
Under 3.5 97.38% (-0.28)

Score analysis

Pau 38.73%
Draw 28.87%
Bastia 32.44%
Pau
1-0 @ 11.65% (-0.34)
2-1 @ 8.3% (+0.19)
2-0 @ 7.04% (-0.42)
3-1 @ 3.27% (-0.03)
3-0 @ 2.98% (-0.11)
3-2 @ 1.88% (-0.04)
Other @ 3.61% (-0.06)
Total : 38.73%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.16% (+0.13)
0-0 @ 10.23% (-0.33)
2-2 @ 4.63% (-0.11)
Other @ 0.09% (+0.01)
Total : 28.87%
Bastia
0-1 @ 10.73% (+0.42)
1-2 @ 7.53% (-0.09)
0-2 @ 5.65% (+0.34)
1-3 @ 2.46% (-0.04)
0-3 @ 2.07% (+0.12)
2-3 @ 1.47%
Other @ 2.53% (+0.26)
Total : 32.44%

Head to Head

Ligue 2
Aug 15, 2025 7.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Ligue 2 Gameweek 20
Jan 24, 2025 7.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Armand-Cesari
  • Julien Maggiotti 54' yellowcard
  • Julien Maggiotti 90'+13' goal
  • yellowcard Iyad Mohamed 5'
  • yellowcard Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa 29'
  • yellowcard Kouadio Ahoussou 49'
  • goal Therence Koudou 51'
  • yellowcard Therence Koudou 54'
  • yellowcard Jean Ruiz 60'
  • yellowcard Jordy Gaspar 80'
  • yellowcard Khalid Boutaib 90'+11'
Ligue 2 Gameweek 8
Oct 22, 2024 6.30pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Stade Du Hameau Idron 1
  • Kouadio Ahoussou 24' goal
  • Kouadio Ahoussou 45' yellowcard
  • Pathe Mboup 48' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Dominique Guidi 29'
  • yellowcard Dylan Tavares 51'
  • goal Clement Rodrigues 53'
Ligue 2 Gameweek 37
May 10, 2024 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Stade Du Hameau Idron 1
  • Tino Costa 3' yellowcard
  • Mons Bassouamina 8' goal
  • Jean Ruiz 55' yellowcard
  • Louis Mouton 74' yellowcard
  • Sessi D'Almeida 90'+6' redcard
  • goal Migouel Alfarela 70'
  • yellowcard Christophe Vincent 76'
  • goal Migouel Alfarela 83'
  • yellowcard Florian Bianchini 90'+3'
Ligue 2 Gameweek 8
Sep 26, 2023 7.45pm
1
4
HT : 0 1
FT Stade Armand-Cesari
  • Benjamin Santelli 39' redcard
  • Anthony Roncaglia 48' yellowcard
  • Facinet Conte 62' goal
  • Julien Maggiotti 85' yellowcard
  • goal Henri Saivet 27'
  • yellowcard Therence Koudou 40'
  • goal Mons Bassouamina 54'
  • goal Henri Saivet 79'
  • yellowcard Jean Ruiz 80'
  • goal Yonis Njoh 82'
  • yellowcard Yonis Njoh 85'
Ligue 2 Gameweek 36
May 20, 2023 6.00pm
2
6
HT : 1 2
FT
  • Mayron George 17' goal
  • Mons Bassouamina 78' goal
  • goal Benjamin Santelli 20'
  • goal Frank Magri 23'
  • goal Dominique Guidi 56'
  • goal Frank Magri 68'
  • goal Lloyd Palun 75'
  • goal Frank Magri 85'