Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bastia win with a probability of 42.14%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 31.6% and a draw had a probability of 26.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 0-1 (9.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.