Ligue 2 Gameweek 20
Jan 23, 2026 7.00pm
Stade Armand-Césari

Bastia vs Montpellier HSC - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Bastia

All competitions
Last game
Jan 16, 2026 7.00pm
Laval 0 - 2 Bastia
Goals scored
10
Top scorer
Jeremy Sebas

Montpellier HSC

All competitions
Last game
Jan 16, 2026 7.00pm
Boulogne 1 - 0 Montpellier
Goals scored
18
Top scorer
Teji Savanier

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bastia win with a probability of 40.41%. A win for Montpellier HSC has a probability of 32.76% and a draw has a probability of 26.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win is 0-1 (9.26%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.64%).

Result

Bastia 40.41%
Draw 26.83%
Montpellier HSC 32.76%

Both Teams to Score: 

52.13%

Goals

Over 1.5 72.11%
Under 1.5 27.89%
Over 2.5 46.95%
Under 2.5 53.05%
Over 3.5 25.48%
Under 3.5 74.52%
Over 4.5 13.37%
Under 4.5 86.63%

First Half Winner

Bastia 30.21%
Draw 44.49%
Montpellier HSC 25.3%

Team To Score First

Bastia 46.85%
No Goal 8.02%
Montpellier HSC 45.13%

Corners

Over 8 54.59%
Equal 8 12.01%
Under 8 33.4%
Over 9 42.65%
Equal 9 11.94%
Under 9 45.41%
Over 10.5 31.77%
Under 10.5 68.23%

Bastia Goals

Over 1.5 38.07%
Under 1.5 61.93%
Over 2.5 15.07%
Under 2.5 84.93%
Over 3.5 4.87%
Under 3.5 95.13%

Montpellier HSC Goals

Over 0.5 66.58%
Under 0.5 33.42%
Over 1.5 32%
Under 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 11.41%
Under 2.5 88.59%
Over 3.5 3.17%
Under 3.5 96.83%

Score analysis

Bastia 40.4%
Draw 26.83%
Montpellier HSC 32.75%
Bastia
1-0 @ 10.59%
2-1 @ 8.73%
2-0 @ 7.07%
3-1 @ 3.95%
3-0 @ 2.93%
3-2 @ 2.34%
Other @ 4.79%
Total : 40.4%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.64%
0-0 @ 8.02%
2-2 @ 5.11%
Other @ 0.08%
Total : 26.83%
Montpellier HSC
0-1 @ 9.26%
1-2 @ 7.69%
0-2 @ 5.45%
1-3 @ 3.05%
0-3 @ 2.12%
2-3 @ 2.09%
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 32.75%

Head to Head

Ligue 2
Sep 20, 2025 1.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Ligue 1
Feb 4, 2017 7.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Steve Mounie 17' goal
  • Ellyes Skhiri 19' yellowcard
  • Jerome Roussillon 37' yellowcard
  • Steve Mounie 64' goal
  • Mathieu Deplagne 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Prince Oniangue 31'
  • goal Enzo Crivelli 34'
  • yellowcard Yannick Cahuzac 37'
  • redcard Aleksander Djiku 92'
Ligue 1
Nov 19, 2016 7.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Ellyes Skhiri 6' goal
  • Gilles Cioni 50' yellowcard
  • Lenny Nangis 54' yellowcard
  • goal Steve Mounie 56'
Ligue 1
Jan 16, 2016 7.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Silva Brandao 32' yellowcard
  • Floyd Ayite 48' goal
  • Aleksander Djiku 59' yellowcard
  • Seko Fofana 65' redcard
  • Francois Modesto 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mathieu Deplagne 41'
  • redcard Daniel Congre 68'
Ligue 1
Oct 24, 2015 7.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Mathieu Deplagne 58' yellowcard
  • Ryad Boudebouz 63' goal
  • Rodrigue Ninga 88' goal
  • yellowcard Mathieu Peybernes 54'
  • yellowcard Axel Ngando 75'
  • yellowcard Yannick Cahuzac 82'
Ligue 1
Apr 4, 2015 7.00pm
3
1
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Lucas Barrios 69' goal
  • Anthony Mounier 72' goal
  • Joris Marveaux 87' yellowcard
  • Morgan Sanson 91' goal
  • goal Giovanni Sio 35'
  • yellowcard Francois-Joseph Modesto 68'
  • yellowcard Julian Palmieri 70'