Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 49.53%. A win for Boulogne had a probability of 26.14% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.28%) and 0-2 (8.51%). The likeliest Boulogne win was 1-0 (7.11%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.