Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star win with a probability of 40.51%. A win for Pau had a probability of 31.39% and a draw had a probability of 28.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Pau win was 0-1 (9.52%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.