Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pau win with a probability of 41.01%. A win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 25.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pau win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.33%). The likeliest Saint-Etienne win was 1-2 (8.24%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.