Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 51.14%. A win for Clermont had a probability of 25.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Clermont win was 1-2 (6.59%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.