Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star win with a probability of 39.15%. A win for Guingamp had a probability of 33.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Guingamp win was 0-1 (9.12%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.