Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 46.4%. A win for Red Star had a probability of 29.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Red Star win was 1-2 (7.18%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.