Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guingamp win with a probability of 44.06%. A win for Pau had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guingamp win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.5%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Pau win was 1-0 (7.96%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.