Ligue 2
May 9, 2026 7.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
Aband. Stade Armand-Césari
  • Jérémy Sebas 23' yellowcard
  • Gustave Akueson 46' yellowcard
  • Mehdi Merghem 60' yellowcard
  • Anthony Roncaglia 75' yellowcard
  • Christophe Vincent 75' yellowcard
  • goal Erwan Colas 16'
  • yellowcard Dame Gueye 42'
  • yellowcard Adil Ali Mohamed Bourabaa 67'
  • yellowcard Anthony Ribelin 83'
  • yellowcard Milan Robin 83'
  • yellowcard William Harhouz 83'
  • yellowcard Anthony Ribelin 84'
  • goal Milan Robin 90'+1'

Bastia vs Le Mans - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Bastia

All competitions
Last game
May 2, 2026 7.00pm
Guingamp 0 - 1 Bastia
Goals scored
23
Top scorer
Felix Tomi

Le Mans

All competitions
Last game
May 2, 2026 7.00pm
Le Mans 1 - 1 Reims
Goals scored
50
Top scorer
Antoine Rabillard

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Le Mans win with a probability of 41.33%. A draw had a probability of 30.25% and a win for Bastia had a probability of 28.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Le Mans win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.29%) and 0-2 (7.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.38%) , while for a Bastia win it was 1-0 (10.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.

Result

Bastia 28.45%
Draw 30.25%
Le Mans 41.33%

Both Teams to Score: 

45.32%

Goals

Over 1.5 65.36%
Under 1.5 34.64%
Over 2.5 39.35%
Under 2.5 60.65%
Over 3.5 20.09% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 79.91% (+0.04)
Over 4.5 10% (-0.01)
Under 4.5 90% (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Bastia 23.45%
Draw 46.19%
Le Mans 30.36%

Team To Score First

Bastia 36.42%
No Goal 11.41%
Le Mans 52.17%

Corners

Over 8 44.6%
Equal 8 12.61%
Under 8 42.78%
Over 9 33.02%
Equal 9 11.58%
Under 9 55.4%
Over 10.5 23.27%
Under 10.5 76.73%

Bastia Goals

Over 1.5 25.57% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 74.43% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 7.91%
Under 2.5 92.09%
Over 3.5 2.07%
Under 3.5 97.93%

Le Mans Goals

Over 0.5 70.01% (-0.01)
Under 0.5 29.99% (+0.01)
Over 1.5 34.98%
Under 1.5 65.02%
Over 2.5 13.44% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 86.56% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 4.19%
Under 3.5 95.81%

Score analysis

Bastia 28.45%
Draw 30.25%
Le Mans 41.34%
Bastia
1-0 @ 10.15%
2-1 @ 6.4%
2-0 @ 5.06%
3-1 @ 2.13% (-0.02)
3-0 @ 1.56% (+0.02)
3-2 @ 1.3%
Other @ 1.85%
Total : 28.45%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.38%
0-0 @ 11.41%
2-2 @ 4.39%
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 30.25%
Le Mans
0-1 @ 13.12%
1-2 @ 8.29% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 7.56%
1-3 @ 3.57% (-0.02)
0-3 @ 3.02% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 1.81% (-0.02)
Other @ 3.97%
Total : 41.34%

Head to Head

Ligue 2
Aug 22, 2025 7.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT