Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 39.21%. A win for Bastia had a probability of 32.21% and a draw had a probability of 28.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.39%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Bastia win was 1-0 (10.88%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.