Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bastia win with a probability of 37.71%. A win for Boulogne had a probability of 32.43% and a draw had a probability of 29.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.83%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Boulogne win was 0-1 (11.64%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.