Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 38.5%. A win for Brest had a probability of 33.52% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Brest win was 0-1 (10.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lorient would win this match.