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Ligue 1

Brest logo
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 33
May 3, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Blé
Nantes

Brest
2 - 0
Nantes

Le Douaron (18'), Pereira Lage (35')
FT(HT: 2-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Nantes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brest

All competitions
Last Game: Ajaccio 0-0 Brest
Sunday, April 23 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Nantes

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Nantes 1-5 Toulouse
Saturday, April 29 at 8pm in Coupe de France

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 38.98%. A win for Nantes had a probability of 34.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Nantes win was 0-1 (9.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.

Result
BrestDrawNantes
38.98% (0.505 0.51)26.74% (0.641 0.64)34.28% (-1.144 -1.14)
Both teams to score 51.57% (-2.26 -2.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.54% (-2.806 -2.81)53.46% (2.807 2.81)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.01% (-2.424 -2.42)74.98% (2.426 2.43)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.22% (-1.024 -1.02)26.77% (1.025 1.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.94% (-1.369 -1.37)62.05% (1.37 1.37)
Nantes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.42% (-2.071 -2.07)29.57% (2.073 2.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.4% (-2.597 -2.6)65.6% (2.598 2.6)
Score Analysis
    Brest 38.98%
    Nantes 34.28%
    Draw 26.74%
BrestDrawNantes
1-0 @ 10.43% (0.823 0.82)
2-1 @ 8.38% (-0.039 -0.04)
2-0 @ 6.87% (0.356 0.36)
3-1 @ 3.68% (-0.126 -0.13)
3-0 @ 3.02% (0.072 0.07)
3-2 @ 2.24% (-0.215 -0.22)
4-1 @ 1.21% (-0.079 -0.08)
4-0 @ 1% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 2.15%
Total : 38.98%
1-1 @ 12.71% (0.31 0.31)
0-0 @ 7.92% (0.836 0.84)
2-2 @ 5.1% (-0.329 -0.33)
3-3 @ 0.91% (-0.147 -0.15)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.74%
0-1 @ 9.65% (0.505 0.51)
1-2 @ 7.74% (-0.262 -0.26)
0-2 @ 5.88% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.15% (-0.3 -0.3)
0-3 @ 2.39% (-0.153 -0.15)
2-3 @ 2.07% (-0.265 -0.27)
1-4 @ 0.96% (-0.154 -0.15)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 34.28%

How you voted: Brest vs Nantes

Brest
62.0%
Draw
30.0%
Nantes
8.0%
50
Head to Head
Oct 16, 2022 2pm
gameweek 11
Nantes
4-1
Brest
Simon (35' pen.), Ganago (36'), Mohamed (71'), Sissoko (88')
Fadiga (18')
Lees-Melou (33')
Apr 10, 2022 2pm
gameweek 31
Brest
1-1
Nantes
Chardonnet (67')
Herelle (64')
Kolo (10')
Chirivella (43'), Castelletto (70'), Da Silva (90+4')
Jan 28, 2022 8pm
Round of 16
Nantes
2-0
Brest
Blas (25', 53')

Brassier (33'), Herelle (51'), Chardonnet (72')
Sep 22, 2021 6pm
gameweek 7
Nantes
3-1
Brest
Blas (27'), Chirivella (55'), Brassier (58' og.)
Castelletto (31')
Le Douaron (67')
Chardonnet (52'), Brassier (85')
May 2, 2021 2pm
gameweek 35
Brest
1-4
Nantes
Simon (15'), Blas (27'), Louza (56'), Coulibaly (62' pen.), Faivre (83')
Larsonneur (61'), Charbonnier (89')