Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 36.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.17%) and 0-2 (5.67%). The likeliest Monaco win was 2-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Monaco in this match.