Liga MX | 1st Leg
May 23, 2025 at 3am UK
Estadio Azteca

America
0 - 0
Toluca


Caceres (29'), Caceres (29'), Davila (48'), Davila (48')
FT

Garcia (11'), Garcia (11'), Pereira (55'), Pereira (55')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Club America and Toluca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: America 2-1 Cruz Azul
Monday, May 19 at 2.15am in Liga MX
Last Game: Toluca 3-0 Tigres
Sunday, May 18 at 2am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club America win with a probability of 49.3%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 25.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club America win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.

Result
Club AmericaDrawToluca
49.3% (-7.916 -7.92)25.16% (2.179 2.18)25.53% (5.733 5.73)
Both teams to score 51.84% (0.385 0.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.06% (-3.021 -3.02)50.93% (3.018 3.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.19% (-2.717 -2.72)72.8% (2.713 2.71)
Club America Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.32% (-4.176 -4.18)20.67% (4.173 4.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.74% (-7.032 -7.03)53.26% (7.027 7.03)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.35% (3.727 3.73)34.64% (-3.732 -3.73)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.63% (3.757 3.76)71.37% (-3.761 -3.76)
Score Analysis
    Club America 49.3%
    Toluca 25.53%
    Draw 25.15%
Club AmericaDrawToluca
1-0 @ 11.28% (-0.12 -0.12)
2-1 @ 9.43% (-0.411 -0.41)
2-0 @ 8.9% (-1.372 -1.37)
3-1 @ 4.96% (-0.956 -0.96)
3-0 @ 4.68% (-1.498 -1.5)
3-2 @ 2.63% (-0.204 -0.2)
4-1 @ 1.95% (-0.71 -0.71)
4-0 @ 1.84% (-0.938 -0.94)
4-2 @ 1.04% (-0.24 -0.24)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 49.3%
1-1 @ 11.96% (1.04 1.04)
0-0 @ 7.16% (0.83 0.83)
2-2 @ 5% (0.286 0.29)
3-3 @ 0.93% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 25.15%
0-1 @ 7.59% (1.528 1.53)
1-2 @ 6.34% (1.11 1.11)
0-2 @ 4.02% (1.12 1.12)
1-3 @ 2.24% (0.571 0.57)
2-3 @ 1.77% (0.262 0.26)
0-3 @ 1.42% (0.495 0.5)
Other @ 2.14%
Total : 25.53%

Head to Head
Mar 1, 2025 11pm
Gameweek 10
America
3-0
Toluca
Fidalgo (6'), Zendejas (51'), Borja (90+6')
Rodriguez (16'), Juarez (57')

Paulinho (57')
Nov 30, 2024 11pm
Toluca
0-2
America

Pereira (80'), Helinho (90+4')
Pereira (84')
Ruiz (49' og.), Martin (72')
Juarez (29'), Aguirre (32')
Nov 28, 2024 1am
America
2-0
Toluca
Aguirre (67', 82')

Violante (21')
Nov 10, 2024 1am
Gameweek 17
Toluca
4-0
America
Gallardo (9'), Angulo (58'), Paulinho (72'), Garcia (77')
Baeza (35')
Apr 14, 2024 2.05am
Gameweek 15
America
5-1
Toluca
Valdes (9', 24'), Martin (15'), Quinones (73', 82')
Calderon (19'), Lichnovsky (50'), Fidalgo (90+2'), Quinones (90+2')
Dominguez (14')
Escobar (49'), Ruiz (90+2')
rhs 2.0


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