Liga MX | 2nd Leg
May 18, 2025 at 2am UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez
Tigres

Toluca
3 - 0
Tigres

Vega (18' pen., 18' pen., 82', 82'), Lopez (79', 79')
Paulinho (14'), Paulinho (14'), Dominguez (37'), Dominguez (37'), Gallardo (61'), Gallardo (61')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Joaquim (16'), Joaquim (16'), Sanchez (26'), Sanchez (26')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Tigres.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Tigres 1-1 Toluca
Thursday, May 15 at 4am in Liga MX

Tigres

All competitions
Liga MX
Last Game: Tigres 1-1 Toluca
Thursday, May 15 at 4am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 42.07%. A win for Tigres had a probability of 32.42% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Tigres win was 0-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawTigres
42.07% (-1.567 -1.57)25.5% (0.26 0.26)32.42% (1.307 1.31)
Both teams to score 55.11% (-0.325 -0.33)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.31% (-0.662 -0.66)48.69% (0.664 0.66)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.2% (-0.605 -0.61)70.8% (0.60600000000001 0.61)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.99% (-1.03 -1.03)23.01% (1.032 1.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.18% (-1.538 -1.54)56.82% (1.539 1.54)
Tigres Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.59% (0.529 0.53)28.41% (-0.529 -0.53)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.84% (0.663 0.66)64.16% (-0.66199999999999 -0.66)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 42.07%
    Tigres 32.42%
    Draw 25.5%
TolucaDrawTigres
1-0 @ 9.61% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.88% (-0.173 -0.17)
2-0 @ 7.06% (-0.245 -0.25)
3-1 @ 4.35% (-0.223 -0.22)
3-0 @ 3.46% (-0.232 -0.23)
3-2 @ 2.74% (-0.098 -0.1)
4-1 @ 1.6% (-0.134 -0.13)
4-0 @ 1.27% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-2 @ 1.01% (-0.068 -0.07)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 42.07%
1-1 @ 12.08% (0.13 0.13)
0-0 @ 6.54% (0.177 0.18)
2-2 @ 5.59% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.15% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.5%
0-1 @ 8.23% (0.339 0.34)
1-2 @ 7.61% (0.197 0.2)
0-2 @ 5.18% (0.287 0.29)
1-3 @ 3.19% (0.128 0.13)
2-3 @ 2.34% (0.024 0.02)
0-3 @ 2.17% (0.151 0.15)
1-4 @ 1% (0.055 0.06)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 32.42%

Head to Head
May 15, 2025 4am
Tigres
1-1
Toluca
Ibanez (19')
Angulo (89'), Guzman (90+3')
Paulinho (45+1')
Dominguez (90+3')
Feb 2, 2025 3.15am
Gameweek 5
Toluca
1-0
Tigres
Paulinho (90+1')
Pereira (31'), Vega (33'), Romero (37')

Pizarro (22'), Aquino (45+4'), Lainez (90+9'), Garcia (90+9')
Nov 7, 2024 1am
Gameweek 16
Tigres
2-1
Toluca
Gignac (4'), Brunetta (57')
Gallardo (79')
Violante (54')
Mar 2, 2024 11pm
Gameweek 10
Toluca
2-1
Tigres
Vega (54'), Volpi (71' pen.)
Vega (52'), Lopez (90+6')
Herrera (35')
Pizarro (52'), Guzman (56'), Sanchez (68')
Cordova (45+6')
Oct 5, 2023 4am
Gameweek 11
Tigres
2-2
Toluca
Angulo (45+5'), Gignac (76')
Gignac (48'), Carioca (63'), Angulo (68'), Herrera (90+9'), Flores (90+9')
Ruiz (44'), Morales (90+4')
Meneses (24'), Isais (59'), Morales (77'), Ruiz (90+2')
Meneses (45+2')
rhs 2.0


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