Tigres
Liga MX | 1st Leg
May 15, 2025 at 4am UK
Estadio Universitario de Nuevo Leon

Tigres
1 - 1
Toluca

Ibanez (19', 19')
Angulo (89'), Angulo (89'), Guzman (90+3'), Guzman (90+3')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Paulinho (45+1', 45+1')
Dominguez (90+3'), Dominguez (90+3')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Tigres and Toluca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Tigres

All competitions
Liga MX
Last Game: Tigres 2-2 Necaxa
Monday, May 12 at 4.10am in Liga MX

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Toluca 2-1 Monterrey
Sunday, May 11 at 2am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigres win with a probability of 52.2%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 24.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tigres win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.73%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.

Result
TigresDrawToluca
52.2% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)23.48% (0.012 0.01)24.32% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Both teams to score 55.99% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.13% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)44.87% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.77% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)67.23% (0.025000000000006 0.03)
Tigres Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.81% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)17.19% (0.02 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.54% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)47.46% (0.038000000000004 0.04)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.61% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)32.39% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.1% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)68.9% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Tigres 52.2%
    Toluca 24.32%
    Draw 23.48%
TigresDrawToluca
1-0 @ 9.8% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-1 @ 9.73% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 8.63% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 5.71% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-0 @ 5.07% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 3.22% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 2.51% (-0.004 -0)
4-0 @ 2.23% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.42% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.88%
Total : 52.2%
1-1 @ 11.05% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.57% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.49%
3-3 @ 1.21%
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 23.48%
0-1 @ 6.28% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.23% (0.0040000000000004 0)
0-2 @ 3.54% (0.004 0)
1-3 @ 2.34% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-3 @ 2.06%
0-3 @ 1.33% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 24.32%

Head to Head
Feb 2, 2025 3.15am
Gameweek 5
Toluca
1-0
Tigres
Paulinho (90+1')
Pereira (31'), Vega (33'), Romero (37')

Pizarro (22'), Aquino (45+4'), Lainez (90+9'), Garcia (90+9')
Nov 7, 2024 1am
Gameweek 16
Tigres
2-1
Toluca
Gignac (4'), Brunetta (57')
Gallardo (79')
Violante (54')
Mar 2, 2024 11pm
Gameweek 10
Toluca
2-1
Tigres
Vega (54'), Volpi (71' pen.)
Vega (52'), Lopez (90+6')
Herrera (35')
Pizarro (52'), Guzman (56'), Sanchez (68')
Cordova (45+6')
Oct 5, 2023 4am
Gameweek 11
Tigres
2-2
Toluca
Angulo (45+5'), Gignac (76')
Gignac (48'), Carioca (63'), Angulo (68'), Herrera (90+9'), Flores (90+9')
Ruiz (44'), Morales (90+4')
Meneses (24'), Isais (59'), Morales (77'), Ruiz (90+2')
Meneses (45+2')
May 14, 2023 7pm
Toluca
3-1
Tigres
Lopez (26', 53'), Ruiz (45+3')
Cordova (71')
rhs 2.0


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