Preview: Leeds United vs. Burnley - prediction, team news, lineups

Leeds United are not quite home and hosed yet in the battle for Premier League survival as they welcome already-relegated Burnley to Elland Road in Friday’s 35th round.

Daniel Farke’s men are among the form teams in the division, though, unbeaten in five, which leaves them six points clear of 18th-placed Tottenham Hotspur with four games left to play.

Match preview

Although 40 points are generally the magic number to beat the drop, that tally may not suffice in the 2025-26 Premier League season, with four teams in and around that mark heading into the final month of the campaign.

Leeds have already reached that mark, but they could still be relegated if their current upswing falters and the teams below them maintain their trajectories.

Among the teams battling to avoid the final relegation place — Leeds, Nottingham Forest, West Ham United and Spurs — all except the North Londoners find themselves in the top half when considering results from the past five matches.

Leeds, who have earned nine points during that period, are sixth in the form table, two behind in-form Forest, and they head into Friday’s contest hoping to add to that tally and move another step closer towards top-flight safety.

Historical precedent gives Farke’s men further reason for optimism, with the Whites entering this weekend on a five-match winning streak against relegated teams by an aggregate score of 18-3.

It will, however, be interesting to see if Burnley have any fight left in them after their relegation was confirmed by last week’s 1-0 loss to title-chasing Manchester City.

Scott Parker’s troops have claimed just one victory in 25 fixtures, albeit a 3-2 win over Crystal Palace after trailing 2-0; however, that win came when survival was still a possibility.

As such, the Clarets’ motivation will be examined as they travel to Elland Road, aware of the possibility of doing the double over the Whites for only the third time in the club’s history after 1925-26 and 2013-14 in the top flight and Championship, respectively.

With the pressure of the survival fight also off, perhaps a side that have earned nine of their last 13 Premier League points away from home will hope for another positive result on their travels.

However, that aspiration depends on Burnley halting their three-match losing streak on the road, having suffered defeats at Everton (2-0), Fulham (3-1) and Forest (4-1), an aggregate score of 9-2.

Leeds United Premier League form:

Leeds United form (all competitions):

Burnley Premier League form:

Team News

Leeds have a relatively healthy squad, but Ilia Gruev will miss the rest of the season due to a knee injury, and they will assess Gabriel Gudmundsson’s hamstring complaint before Friday.

While Dominic Calvert-Lewin leads the way for goals with 11, the leading scorer has netted just one in his last eight appearances, with his last open-play strike coming in February’s 3-1 win over Forest.

Noah Okafor, however, has been in storming form for Farke’s men, with the Swiss forward scoring five of his seven goals for the club since the start of February, making him the team’s in-form attacker.

Relegated Burnley have several issues to contend with heading into this weekend, with Josh Cullen (knee), Connor Roberts (calf) and Jordan Beyer (thigh) definitely unavailable; however, Hannibal Mejbri (thigh), Axel Tuanzebe (calf) and Zeki Amdouni (knee) are nearing returns.

Zian Flemming is one more goal from emulating Chris Wood (2020-21) and Danny Ings (2014-15) as the only Burnley players to score double figures in the top flight, with Wood notching 12 and Ings 11.

Flemming has reason to be full of belief on Friday, as eight of his nine Premier League goals have come in away games, including three in a row at Forest, Fulham and Chelsea.

Leeds United possible starting lineup:

Darlow; Rodon, Bijol, Struijk; Bogle, Ampadu, Tanaka, Justin; Aaronson, Okafor; Calvert-Lewin

Burnley possible starting lineup:

Dubravka; Walker, Ekdal, Humphreys, Esteve, Hartman; Tchaouna, Ward-Prowse, Laurent, Anthony; Flemming

We say: Leeds United 2-1 Burnley

While Leeds are favourites to beat Burnley, they must show a different side from the one that had fired blanks in three consecutive matches at Elland Road before scoring three against Wolverhampton Wanderers last time out.

We are backing the Whites to follow up that success over one relegated side by edging Burnley on Friday night to extend their unbeaten run and take another step towards Premier League survival.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.