Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cyprus win with a probability of 41.76%. A win for San Marino had a probability of 32.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cyprus win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest San Marino win was 1-0 (8.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cyprus would win this match.